Thanks for your help! For clarity: I planned on upgrading CIMC first to 3.0(4i), then upgrade ESXi to 5.5 U3. Cisco suggest net-igb 5.2.6 for CIMC 3.0(4i) (not 5.2.5 as we've discussed, yet still supported). My plan was to upgrade the IGB driver BEFORE upgrading ESXi as 5.2.5 is OK with CIMC 2.0(4c) (current) and 3.0(4i).
So: if I upgrade IGB now whilst still on 5.1 U2 that will be fine?
Thanks for clearing up the direct upgrade though! It's not well documented.